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Italy · Top flight
Serie A (Italy)
Italy's top flight, where tactical preparation is famously thorough and matches between mid-table sides are often cagey. Clubs in European competition rotate heavily, so team news matters more here than the table suggests. The bottom three are relegated to Serie B.
Serie A (Italy) 2026/2027: Inter lead on expected points with 25.3. See every club's expected goals (xG), xG against (xGA) and expected points, from 110 matches.
Overperforming most: Lazio (+12.1 points). Underperforming most: Fiorentina (−7.9).
Updated with matches to 8 November 2026.
Inter
Roma
Juventus
Napoli
Como
Bologna
AC Milan
Fiorentina
Lazio
Frosinone
Monza
Atalanta
Venezia
Torino
Genoa
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Udinese
Parma| # | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 28.8 | 10.0 | 25.3 |
| 2 | Roma | 25.5 | 13.4 | 21.9 |
| 3 | Juventus | 16.1 | 9.7 | 19.9 |
| 4 | Napoli | 20.1 | 15.0 | 18.7 |
| 5 | Como | 18.6 | 14.7 | 17.9 |
| 6 | Bologna | 17.9 | 14.3 | 17.5 |
| 7 | AC Milan | 17.1 | 12.6 | 17.3 |
| 8 | Fiorentina | 19.0 | 17.8 | 16.9 |
| 9 | Lazio | 17.4 | 14.4 | 16.9 |
| 10 | Frosinone | 20.9 | 23.2 | 14.6 |
| 11 | Monza | 16.4 | 16.9 | 14.5 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 17.6 | 20.3 | 13.2 |
| 13 | Venezia | 15.9 | 20.6 | 12.9 |
| 14 | Torino | 11.9 | 16.7 | 12.6 |
| 15 | Genoa | 10.5 | 14.4 | 12.2 |
| 16 | Sassuolo | 13.9 | 20.9 | 11.7 |
| 17 | Cagliari | 12.8 | 20.1 | 11.3 |
| 18 | Lecce | 12.6 | 19.3 | 11.1 |
| 19 | Udinese | 12.2 | 20.3 | 10.9 |
| 20 | Parma | 10.6 | 21.2 | 9.2 |
xG: expected goals. xGA: expected goals against. xGD: the difference. xPts: expected points. From 110 of 110 finished regular-season matches: a match with no xG is left out of both figures, so points can be below the real table's. Points deductions are not counted. Early in a season most of a gap is luck, and a gap is no forecast.
It ranks Serie A (Italy) clubs by expected points, what their chances were worth, instead of the points they won. xG (expected goals) is how likely each shot was to be scored, added up over a match.
The two clubs' xG in a match give the chances of a win, a draw and a loss through two Poisson distributions. Three times the chance of a win plus the chance of a draw is the match's expected points, and a club's figure is the sum of its matches. Providers that simulate each shot get figures close to these, not the same.
Lazio: 29 points from 16.9 expected, a gap of +12.1. Furthest the other way is Fiorentina: 9 points from 16.9 expected. Part of a gap can be finishing or goalkeeping rather than luck.
No. A club above its expected points may fall back, or may keep taking its chances. The gap shows what has happened, not what comes next, and it says nothing about the odds on a match.