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England · Fourth tier
League Two
The fourth tier, and the lowest division of the English Football League. Three clubs win automatic promotion, the next four contest the play-offs, and the bottom two drop out of the Football League altogether. Thin coverage and a high volume of matches mean bookmakers' prices here tend to be less sharp.
League Two 2026/2027: Chesterfield lead on expected points with 25.8. See every club's expected goals (xG), xG against (xGA) and expected points, from 164 matches.
Overperforming most: Salford City (+9.3 points). Underperforming most: Chesterfield (−6.8).
Updated with matches to 3 November 2026.
Chesterfield
Grimsby Town
York City
Shrewsbury Town
Accrington Stanley
Salford City
Barnet
Bristol Rovers
Newport County
Fleetwood Town
Walsall
Oldham Athletic
Exeter City
Crewe Alexandra
Rotherham United
Port Vale
Gillingham
Colchester United
Tranmere Rovers
Northampton Town
Cheltenham Town
Crawley Town
Swindon Town
Rochdale| # | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chesterfield | 25.5 | 15.2 | 25.8 |
| 2 | Grimsby Town | 27.2 | 18.4 | 24.8 |
| 3 | York City | 22.2 | 17.4 | 22.6 |
| 4 | Shrewsbury Town | 20.1 | 15.2 | 22.4 |
| 5 | Accrington Stanley | 20.2 | 16.4 | 22.2 |
| 6 | Salford City | 18.4 | 15.0 | 21.7 |
| 7 | Barnet | 23.6 | 18.5 | 20.8 |
| 8 | Bristol Rovers | 22.1 | 19.2 | 20.4 |
| 9 | Newport County | 17.5 | 17.5 | 20.1 |
| 10 | Fleetwood Town | 19.9 | 20.0 | 19.6 |
| 11 | Walsall | 22.9 | 20.7 | 19.5 |
| 12 | Oldham Athletic | 19.8 | 19.0 | 19.3 |
| 13 | Exeter City | 15.8 | 15.7 | 19.0 |
| 14 | Crewe Alexandra | 16.8 | 17.0 | 18.9 |
| 15 | Rotherham United | 17.5 | 18.9 | 18.0 |
| 16 | Port Vale | 14.6 | 13.0 | 16.9 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 17.1 | 22.3 | 16.7 |
| 18 | Colchester United | 18.0 | 20.2 | 16.6 |
| 19 | Tranmere Rovers | 17.6 | 22.5 | 16.4 |
| 20 | Northampton Town | 12.5 | 15.1 | 15.8 |
| 21 | Cheltenham Town | 16.4 | 22.8 | 15.1 |
| 22 | Crawley Town | 17.3 | 22.1 | 14.3 |
| 23 | Swindon Town | 15.2 | 25.1 | 13.7 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 13.1 | 24.0 | 12.3 |
xG: expected goals. xGA: expected goals against. xGD: the difference. xPts: expected points. From 164 of 164 finished regular-season matches: a match with no xG is left out of both figures, so points can be below the real table's. Points deductions are not counted. Early in a season most of a gap is luck, and a gap is no forecast.
It ranks League Two clubs by expected points, what their chances were worth, instead of the points they won. xG (expected goals) is how likely each shot was to be scored, added up over a match.
The two clubs' xG in a match give the chances of a win, a draw and a loss through two Poisson distributions. Three times the chance of a win plus the chance of a draw is the match's expected points, and a club's figure is the sum of its matches. Providers that simulate each shot get figures close to these, not the same.
Salford City: 31 points from 21.7 expected, a gap of +9.3. Furthest the other way is Chesterfield: 19 points from 25.8 expected. Part of a gap can be finishing or goalkeeping rather than luck.
No. A club above its expected points may fall back, or may keep taking its chances. The gap shows what has happened, not what comes next, and it says nothing about the odds on a match.