England · Third tier

League One

England's third tier. Deep squads are rare, form swings quickly and its markets get far less attention than the Premier League's — exactly the conditions in which careful pricing matters most. Two clubs are promoted automatically, a play-off decides the third, and four go down.

Season 2026/2027
24 clubs
Autumn–spring season

League One xG table 2026/2027

League One 2026/2027: Stockport County lead on expected points with 27.9. See every club's expected goals (xG), xG against (xGA) and expected points, from 158 matches.

Overperforming most: Oxford United (+9.0 points). Underperforming most: Peterborough United (−7.4).

Updated with matches to 4 November 2026.

Real points against expected points

The arrow runs from expected to real points: solid above expected, dashed below.

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Stockport County
−1.9
Huddersfield Town
+1.6
Luton Town
−1.1
Reading
−3.0
Leicester City
−3.3
Sheffield Wednesday
−1.1
Milton Keynes Dons
−2.1
Mansfield Town
−0.8
Bradford City
+2.6
Wycombe Wanderers
−1.3
Plymouth Argyle
+3.9
Cambridge United
+2.2
Peterborough United
−7.4
Oxford United
+9.0
Wigan Athletic
−4.6
Stevenage
+0.5
Barnsley
−6.1
Blackpool
−3.1
Burton Albion
+2.2
Doncaster Rovers
−2.7
Notts County
−0.5
Leyton Orient
+3.7
AFC Wimbledon
+0.8
Bromley
+0.2

xG, xGA and expected points

League One table

#
1	Stockport County	14	29.7	15.1	+14.6	27.9	26	−1.9
2	Huddersfield Town	14	30.7	15.5	+15.2	27.4	29	+1.6
3	Luton Town	14	26.0	16.5	+9.5	25.1	24	−1.1
4	Reading	14	25.9	16.6	+9.3	25.0	22	−3.0
5	Leicester City	13	23.8	16.5	+7.3	22.3	19	−3.3
6	Sheffield Wednesday	13	23.6	17.0	+6.6	21.1	20	−1.1
7	Milton Keynes Dons	13	22.7	18.8	+3.9	20.1	18	−2.1
8	Mansfield Town	13	20.7	17.1	+3.6	19.8	19	−0.8
9	Bradford City	13	16.6	13.6	+3.1	19.4	22	+2.6
10	Wycombe Wanderers	13	21.2	19.8	+1.4	19.3	18	−1.3
11	Plymouth Argyle	14	21.0	21.5	−0.5	19.1	23	+3.9
12	Cambridge United	14	21.0	22.2	−1.2	18.8	21	+2.2
13	Peterborough United	13	19.6	22.0	−2.3	17.4	10	−7.4
14	Oxford United	13	17.9	21.3	−3.3	17.0	26	+9.0
15	Wigan Athletic	14	18.7	26.7	−7.9	15.6	11	−4.6
16	Stevenage	12	13.5	15.0	−1.5	15.5	16	+0.5
17	Barnsley	12	17.7	21.0	−3.3	15.1	9	−6.1
18	Blackpool	12	19.7	22.4	−2.7	15.1	12	−3.1
19	Burton Albion	14	13.0	21.1	−8.1	14.9	17	+2.2
20	Doncaster Rovers	13	16.0	22.9	−6.9	14.7	12	−2.7
21	Notts County	12	13.7	16.9	−3.2	14.5	14	−0.5
22	Leyton Orient	13	14.7	22.0	−7.2	13.3	17	+3.7
23	AFC Wimbledon	13	13.2	23.0	−9.7	12.2	13	+0.8
24	Bromley	13	11.4	27.8	−16.4	8.8	9	+0.2

xG: expected goals. xGA: expected goals against. xGD: the difference. xPts: expected points. From 158 of 158 finished regular-season matches: a match with no xG is left out of both figures, so points can be below the real table's. Points deductions are not counted. Early in a season most of a gap is luck, and a gap is no forecast.

xG table questions

What is the League One xG table?

It ranks League One clubs by expected points, what their chances were worth, instead of the points they won. xG (expected goals) is how likely each shot was to be scored, added up over a match.

How are expected points calculated?

The two clubs' xG in a match give the chances of a win, a draw and a loss through two Poisson distributions. Three times the chance of a win plus the chance of a draw is the match's expected points, and a club's figure is the sum of its matches. Providers that simulate each shot get figures close to these, not the same.

Which League One club is the luckiest on expected points?

Oxford United: 26 points from 17.0 expected, a gap of +9.0. Furthest the other way is Peterborough United: 10 points from 17.4 expected. Part of a gap can be finishing or goalkeeping rather than luck.

Does a gap mean results will change?

No. A club above its expected points may fall back, or may keep taking its chances. The gap shows what has happened, not what comes next, and it says nothing about the odds on a match.