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Portugal · Top flight
Liga Portugal
Portugal's top flight, long dominated by Benfica, Porto and Sporting CP. The gap between the big three and the rest keeps favourites short-priced, so the more interesting questions are often about goals rather than who wins.
Liga Portugal 2026/2027: Porto lead on expected points with 23.7. See every club's expected goals (xG), xG against (xGA) and expected points, from 98 matches.
Overperforming most: Porto (+9.3 points). Underperforming most: Vitória Guimarães (−9.1).
Updated with matches to 8 November 2026.
Porto
Benfica
Sporting CP
Sporting Braga
Gil Vicente
Vitória Guimarães
Santa Clara
Estrela Amadora
Arouca
Famalicão
Alverca
Nacional
Academico Viseu
Marítimo
Estoril
Casa Pia
Moreirense
Rio Ave| # | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 24.8 | 10.1 | 23.7 |
| 2 | Benfica | 23.6 | 9.6 | 23.5 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 20.9 | 9.4 | 22.1 |
| 4 | Sporting Braga | 14.6 | 7.8 | 19.9 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 14.6 | 9.8 | 18.5 |
| 6 | Vitória Guimarães | 16.6 | 11.1 | 18.1 |
| 7 | Santa Clara | 14.2 | 11.5 | 17.2 |
| 8 | Estrela Amadora | 16.1 | 13.8 | 16.7 |
| 9 | Arouca | 11.5 | 13.0 | 14.6 |
| 10 | Famalicão | 9.6 | 13.2 | 13.0 |
| 11 | Alverca | 13.2 | 16.3 | 12.8 |
| 12 | Nacional | 11.9 | 17.9 | 11.9 |
| 13 | Academico Viseu | 12.2 | 19.5 | 11.1 |
| 14 | Marítimo | 9.8 | 14.0 | 11.1 |
| 15 | Estoril | 10.0 | 16.5 | 10.1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9.5 | 18.2 | 9.9 |
| 17 | Moreirense | 9.3 | 19.2 | 9.3 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 7.8 | 19.2 | 7.7 |
xG: expected goals. xGA: expected goals against. xGD: the difference. xPts: expected points. From 98 of 98 finished regular-season matches: a match with no xG is left out of both figures, so points can be below the real table's. Points deductions are not counted. Early in a season most of a gap is luck, and a gap is no forecast.
It ranks Liga Portugal clubs by expected points, what their chances were worth, instead of the points they won. xG (expected goals) is how likely each shot was to be scored, added up over a match.
The two clubs' xG in a match give the chances of a win, a draw and a loss through two Poisson distributions. Three times the chance of a win plus the chance of a draw is the match's expected points, and a club's figure is the sum of its matches. Providers that simulate each shot get figures close to these, not the same.
Porto: 33 points from 23.7 expected, a gap of +9.3. Furthest the other way is Vitória Guimarães: 9 points from 18.1 expected. Part of a gap can be finishing or goalkeeping rather than luck.
No. A club above its expected points may fall back, or may keep taking its chances. The gap shows what has happened, not what comes next, and it says nothing about the odds on a match.