Spain · Top flight

La Liga

Spain's top flight. Technical, possession-based football tends to produce tighter, lower-scoring matches than in Germany or England, so goal markets have to be priced with that tempo in mind. The bottom three are relegated to La Liga 2.

Season 2026/2027
20 clubs
Autumn–spring season

La Liga xG table 2026/2027

La Liga 2026/2027: FC Barcelona lead on expected points with 27.7. See every club's expected goals (xG), xG against (xGA) and expected points, from 119 matches.

Overperforming most: Real Betis (+8.5 points). Underperforming most: Villarreal (−7.1).

Updated with matches to 8 November 2026.

Real points against expected points

The arrow runs from expected to real points: solid above expected, dashed below.

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FC Barcelona
+5.4
Real Madrid
+6.3
Villarreal
−7.1
Atlético de Madrid
+8.2
Athletic Club
−2.6
Real Betis
+8.5
Deportivo A Coruña
−1.9
Sevilla
+1.3
Espanyol
−4.4
Deportivo Alavés
−2.6
Celta de Vigo
−2.4
Elche
−5.3
Osasuna
−3.1
Real Sociedad
+7.7
Racing Santander
+0.5
Valencia
−4.2
Rayo Vallecano
−1.0
Getafe
−0.4
Levante
−1.2
Málaga
−6.3

xG, xGA and expected points

La Liga table

#
1	FC Barcelona	12	34.7	11.8	+22.9	27.7	33	+5.4
2	Real Madrid	12	25.8	13.6	+12.2	23.7	30	+6.3
3	Villarreal	12	22.5	13.2	+9.3	22.1	15	−7.1
4	Atlético de Madrid	12	19.6	14.0	+5.6	19.8	28	+8.2
5	Athletic Club	11	18.7	13.8	+4.9	18.6	16	−2.6
6	Real Betis	12	19.4	18.6	+0.8	17.5	26	+8.5
7	Deportivo A Coruña	12	16.0	14.3	+1.7	16.9	15	−1.9
8	Sevilla	12	15.7	16.7	−0.9	16.7	18	+1.3
9	Espanyol	12	13.8	14.8	−1.0	16.4	12	−4.4
10	Deportivo Alavés	12	14.5	16.3	−1.9	15.6	13	−2.6
11	Celta de Vigo	12	12.7	13.9	−1.2	15.4	13	−2.4
12	Elche	12	15.8	18.5	−2.7	15.3	10	−5.3
13	Osasuna	12	16.6	19.0	−2.3	15.1	12	−3.1
14	Real Sociedad	12	16.4	20.9	−4.5	14.4	22	+7.7
15	Racing Santander	12	16.7	25.8	−9.1	13.5	14	+0.5
16	Valencia	12	11.8	17.8	−6.0	13.2	9	−4.2
17	Rayo Vallecano	11	14.8	19.2	−4.4	13.0	12	−1.0
18	Getafe	12	10.4	16.8	−6.4	12.4	12	−0.4
19	Levante	12	15.0	22.8	−7.8	12.2	11	−1.2
20	Málaga	12	12.3	21.5	−9.2	11.3	5	−6.3

xG: expected goals. xGA: expected goals against. xGD: the difference. xPts: expected points. From 119 of 119 finished regular-season matches: a match with no xG is left out of both figures, so points can be below the real table's. Points deductions are not counted. Early in a season most of a gap is luck, and a gap is no forecast.

xG table questions

What is the La Liga xG table?

It ranks La Liga clubs by expected points, what their chances were worth, instead of the points they won. xG (expected goals) is how likely each shot was to be scored, added up over a match.

How are expected points calculated?

The two clubs' xG in a match give the chances of a win, a draw and a loss through two Poisson distributions. Three times the chance of a win plus the chance of a draw is the match's expected points, and a club's figure is the sum of its matches. Providers that simulate each shot get figures close to these, not the same.

Which La Liga club is the luckiest on expected points?

Real Betis: 26 points from 17.5 expected, a gap of +8.5. Furthest the other way is Villarreal: 15 points from 22.1 expected. Part of a gap can be finishing or goalkeeping rather than luck.

Does a gap mean results will change?

No. A club above its expected points may fall back, or may keep taking its chances. The gap shows what has happened, not what comes next, and it says nothing about the odds on a match.