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Brazil · Top flight
Serie A (Brazil)
Brazil's top flight, the Brasileirão: a calendar-year season played as a straight double round-robin, with no play-offs. Long travel, a packed schedule and a strong home advantage make it very different from European football — and a steady source of matches during the European summer. The bottom four are relegated.
Serie A (Brazil) 2026: Flamengo lead on expected points with 62.3. See every club's expected goals (xG), xG against (xGA) and expected points, from 339 matches.
Overperforming most: Palmeiras (+16.0 points). Underperforming most: Vasco da Gama (−14.3).
Updated with matches to 6 November 2026.
Flamengo
Palmeiras
Vasco da Gama
Cruzeiro
Bragantino
Bahia
Fluminense
São Paulo
Internacional
Athletico PR
Santos
Atlético Mineiro
Corinthians
Botafogo
Mirassol
Vitória
Coritiba
Remo
Grêmio
Chapecoense| # | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 59.8 | 34.1 | 62.3 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 52.8 | 33.6 | 57.0 |
| 3 | Vasco da Gama | 56.1 | 36.1 | 55.3 |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 51.2 | 43.7 | 52.4 |
| 5 | Bragantino | 51.1 | 44.8 | 51.2 |
| 6 | Bahia | 53.0 | 49.2 | 50.3 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 46.7 | 41.7 | 49.8 |
| 8 | São Paulo | 48.1 | 41.9 | 49.5 |
| 9 | Internacional | 46.4 | 41.7 | 49.4 |
| 10 | Athletico PR | 45.0 | 40.7 | 49.2 |
| 11 | Santos | 45.1 | 42.9 | 47.9 |
| 12 | Atlético Mineiro | 44.9 | 45.1 | 46.9 |
| 13 | Corinthians | 35.3 | 37.3 | 44.8 |
| 14 | Botafogo | 42.4 | 46.9 | 44.6 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 45.8 | 53.0 | 43.2 |
| 16 | Vitória | 34.5 | 50.4 | 38.3 |
| 17 | Coritiba | 36.5 | 52.2 | 37.6 |
| 18 | Remo | 36.2 | 51.5 | 37.2 |
| 19 | Grêmio | 35.8 | 55.6 | 35.6 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 35.3 | 59.4 | 32.6 |
xG: expected goals. xGA: expected goals against. xGD: the difference. xPts: expected points. From 339 of 339 finished regular-season matches: a match with no xG is left out of both figures, so points can be below the real table's. Points deductions are not counted. Early in a season most of a gap is luck, and a gap is no forecast.
It ranks Serie A (Brazil) clubs by expected points, what their chances were worth, instead of the points they won. xG (expected goals) is how likely each shot was to be scored, added up over a match.
The two clubs' xG in a match give the chances of a win, a draw and a loss through two Poisson distributions. Three times the chance of a win plus the chance of a draw is the match's expected points, and a club's figure is the sum of its matches. Providers that simulate each shot get figures close to these, not the same.
Palmeiras: 73 points from 57.0 expected, a gap of +16.0. Furthest the other way is Vasco da Gama: 41 points from 55.3 expected. Part of a gap can be finishing or goalkeeping rather than luck.
No. A club above its expected points may fall back, or may keep taking its chances. The gap shows what has happened, not what comes next, and it says nothing about the odds on a match.