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England · Top flight
Premier League
England's top flight and the most-watched league in the world. Its markets are also among the most efficient anywhere, so an edge here is thin and hard-won — which is exactly why it is worth measuring against the closing line. The bottom three are relegated to the Championship each season.
Premier League 2026/2027: Arsenal lead on expected points with 19.4. See every club's expected goals (xG), xG against (xGA) and expected points, from 100 matches.
Overperforming most: Arsenal (+7.6 points). Underperforming most: Nottingham Forest (−6.9).
Updated with matches to 8 November 2026.
Arsenal
Manchester City
Brighton & Hove Albion
AFC Bournemouth
Nottingham Forest
Liverpool
Fulham
Sunderland
Leeds United
Manchester United
Tottenham Hotspur
Brentford
Chelsea
Everton
Ipswich Town
Aston Villa
Newcastle United
Coventry City
Hull City
Crystal Palace| # | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 17.3 | 8.7 | 19.4 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 18.9 | 10.7 | 19.0 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 19.6 | 14.0 | 17.2 |
| 4 | AFC Bournemouth | 16.0 | 10.5 | 16.8 |
| 5 | Nottingham Forest | 15.6 | 11.8 | 15.9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 17.4 | 13.6 | 15.8 |
| 7 | Fulham | 15.8 | 12.3 | 15.3 |
| 8 | Sunderland | 15.2 | 14.5 | 14.9 |
| 9 | Leeds United | 13.0 | 12.3 | 14.4 |
| 10 | Manchester United | 17.3 | 14.9 | 14.4 |
| 11 | Tottenham Hotspur | 13.3 | 12.9 | 14.2 |
| 12 | Brentford | 15.7 | 16.1 | 13.2 |
| 13 | Chelsea | 13.7 | 14.4 | 13.1 |
| 14 | Everton | 13.7 | 15.1 | 13.1 |
| 15 | Ipswich Town | 12.1 | 17.8 | 11.7 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 13.5 | 19.6 | 10.7 |
| 17 | Newcastle United | 12.3 | 18.3 | 10.4 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 9.7 | 16.1 | 9.7 |
| 19 | Hull City | 9.5 | 15.0 | 9.7 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 11.8 | 23.2 | 8.5 |
xG: expected goals. xGA: expected goals against. xGD: the difference. xPts: expected points. From 100 of 100 finished regular-season matches: a match with no xG is left out of both figures, so points can be below the real table's. Points deductions are not counted. Early in a season most of a gap is luck, and a gap is no forecast.
It ranks Premier League clubs by expected points, what their chances were worth, instead of the points they won. xG (expected goals) is how likely each shot was to be scored, added up over a match.
The two clubs' xG in a match give the chances of a win, a draw and a loss through two Poisson distributions. Three times the chance of a win plus the chance of a draw is the match's expected points, and a club's figure is the sum of its matches. Providers that simulate each shot get figures close to these, not the same.
Arsenal: 27 points from 19.4 expected, a gap of +7.6. Furthest the other way is Nottingham Forest: 9 points from 15.9 expected. Part of a gap can be finishing or goalkeeping rather than luck.
No. A club above its expected points may fall back, or may keep taking its chances. The gap shows what has happened, not what comes next, and it says nothing about the odds on a match.