Germany · Second tier

2. Bundesliga

Germany's second division: well-supported clubs, big stadiums and a genuinely unpredictable race for the top. The top two are promoted automatically and the third-placed club plays off against the Bundesliga's 16th.

Season 2026/2027
18 clubs
Autumn–spring season

2. Bundesliga xG table 2026/2027

2. Bundesliga 2026/2027: Hertha BSC lead on expected points with 21.2. See every club's expected goals (xG), xG against (xGA) and expected points, from 99 matches.

Overperforming most: Hertha BSC (+9.8 points). Underperforming most: Holstein Kiel (−7.7).

Updated with matches to 8 November 2026.

Real points against expected points

The arrow runs from expected to real points: solid above expected, dashed below.

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Hertha BSC
+9.8
FC Heidenheim
−2.3
St. Pauli
−5.7
Nürnberg
+6.7
VfL Wolfsburg
+1.9
VfL Bochum 1848
−2.5
DSC Arminia Bielefeld
+1.1
Kaiserslautern
+5.2
Holstein Kiel
−7.7
Magdeburg
+4.7
Hannover 96
−3.2
Eintracht Braunschweig
−3.9
Dynamo Dresden
−3.7
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
−0.9
Karlsruher SC
−1.4
Osnabrück
−1.1
Energie Cottbus
−0.4
Darmstadt 98
−1.7

xG, xGA and expected points

2. Bundesliga table

#
1	Hertha BSC	11	22.7	12.4	+10.3	21.2	31	+9.8
2	FC Heidenheim	11	20.0	14.0	+6.0	18.3	16	−2.3
3	St. Pauli	11	17.3	12.9	+4.4	17.7	12	−5.7
4	Nürnberg	11	20.8	18.7	+2.1	17.3	24	+6.7
5	VfL Wolfsburg	11	20.6	16.8	+3.8	17.1	19	+1.9
6	VfL Bochum 1848	11	17.0	15.1	+1.9	16.5	14	−2.5
7	DSC Arminia Bielefeld	11	14.9	14.0	+0.9	15.9	17	+1.1
8	Kaiserslautern	11	16.4	15.3	+1.1	15.8	21	+5.2
9	Holstein Kiel	11	16.0	15.3	+0.6	15.7	8	−7.7
10	Magdeburg	11	14.9	14.9	−0.0	15.3	20	+4.7
11	Hannover 96	11	18.0	17.1	+0.9	15.2	12	−3.2
12	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	16.9	17.7	−0.8	14.9	11	−3.9
13	Dynamo Dresden	11	17.3	19.0	−1.6	14.7	11	−3.7
14	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	11	15.4	19.0	−3.6	12.9	12	−0.9
15	Karlsruher SC	11	14.2	19.4	−5.2	12.4	11	−1.4
16	Osnabrück	11	15.5	20.8	−5.3	12.1	11	−1.1
17	Energie Cottbus	11	15.6	23.3	−7.8	11.4	11	−0.4
18	Darmstadt 98	11	11.8	19.6	−7.8	10.7	9	−1.7

xG: expected goals. xGA: expected goals against. xGD: the difference. xPts: expected points. From 99 of 99 finished regular-season matches: a match with no xG is left out of both figures, so points can be below the real table's. Points deductions are not counted. Early in a season most of a gap is luck, and a gap is no forecast.

xG table questions

What is the 2. Bundesliga xG table?

It ranks 2. Bundesliga clubs by expected points, what their chances were worth, instead of the points they won. xG (expected goals) is how likely each shot was to be scored, added up over a match.

How are expected points calculated?

The two clubs' xG in a match give the chances of a win, a draw and a loss through two Poisson distributions. Three times the chance of a win plus the chance of a draw is the match's expected points, and a club's figure is the sum of its matches. Providers that simulate each shot get figures close to these, not the same.

Which 2. Bundesliga club is the luckiest on expected points?

Hertha BSC: 31 points from 21.2 expected, a gap of +9.8. Furthest the other way is Holstein Kiel: 8 points from 15.7 expected. Part of a gap can be finishing or goalkeeping rather than luck.

Does a gap mean results will change?

No. A club above its expected points may fall back, or may keep taking its chances. The gap shows what has happened, not what comes next, and it says nothing about the odds on a match.

Hertha BSC

22.7

12.4

21.2

FC Heidenheim

20.0

14.0

18.3

St. Pauli

17.3

12.9

17.7

Nürnberg

20.8

18.7

17.3

VfL Wolfsburg

20.6

16.8

17.1

VfL Bochum 1848

17.0

15.1

16.5

DSC Arminia Bielefeld

14.9

14.0

15.9

Kaiserslautern

16.4

15.3

15.8

Holstein Kiel

16.0

15.3

15.7

Magdeburg

14.9

15.3

Hannover 96

18.0

17.1

15.2

Eintracht Braunschweig

16.9

17.7

14.9

Dynamo Dresden

17.3

19.0

14.7

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

15.4

19.0

12.9

Karlsruher SC

14.2

19.4

12.4

Osnabrück

15.5

20.8

12.1

Energie Cottbus

15.6

23.3

11.4

Darmstadt 98

11.8

19.6

10.7

xG table questions

What is the 2. Bundesliga xG table?

It ranks 2. Bundesliga clubs by expected points, what their chances were worth, instead of the points they won. xG (expected goals) is how likely each shot was to be scored, added up over a match.

How are expected points calculated?

Which 2. Bundesliga club is the luckiest on expected points?

Hertha BSC: 31 points from 21.2 expected, a gap of +9.8. Furthest the other way is Holstein Kiel: 8 points from 15.7 expected. Part of a gap can be finishing or goalkeeping rather than luck.

Does a gap mean results will change?

No. A club above its expected points may fall back, or may keep taking its chances. The gap shows what has happened, not what comes next, and it says nothing about the odds on a match.