Germany · Top flight
Bundesliga
Germany's top flight, known for open, attacking matches and one of the highest goal averages among Europe's major leagues. That makes its goals markets — Over 2.5 and both teams to score — a natural fit. The 16th-placed club faces a play-off against the third team in the 2. Bundesliga.
- Season 2026/2027
- 18 clubs
- Autumn–spring season
Bundesliga xG table 2026/2027
Bundesliga 2026/2027: FC Bayern München lead on expected points with 22.1. See every club's expected goals (xG), xG against (xGA) and expected points, from 81 matches.
Overperforming most: Borussia Dortmund (+5.7 points). Underperforming most: Borussia Mönchengladbach (−5.4).
Updated with matches to 8 November 2026.
Real points against expected points
FC Bayern München−1.1
RB Leipzig+0.6
SC Freiburg+2.2
Borussia Dortmund+5.7
Bayer 04 Leverkusen+0.8
TSG Hoffenheim−2.8
FSV Mainz 05−4.0
FC Köln−3.9
Werder Bremen+2.5
VfB Stuttgart+0.0
Paderborn−0.4
Eintracht Frankfurt+1.7
FC Augsburg−0.6
Borussia Mönchengladbach−5.4
FC Union Berlin−2.0
Elversberg+4.1
Schalke 04−2.6
Hamburger SV+4.3
xG, xGA and expected points
Bundesliga table| # | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 27.6 | 8.1 | 22.1 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 20.9 | 12.5 | 17.4 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 16.2 | 8.9 | 16.8 |
| 4 | Borussia Dortmund | 14.2 | 10.9 | 15.3 |
| 5 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 18.5 | 14.2 | 15.2 |
| 6 | TSG Hoffenheim | 16.9 | 13.1 | 14.8 |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 17.4 | 15.8 | 14.0 |
| 8 | FC Köln | 14.0 | 13.9 | 12.9 |
| 9 | Werder Bremen | 14.2 | 13.7 | 12.5 |
| 10 | VfB Stuttgart | 17.2 | 17.8 | 12.0 |
| 11 | Paderborn | 10.9 | 14.0 | 10.4 |
| 12 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 14.3 | 18.8 | 10.3 |
| 13 | FC Augsburg | 17.1 | 24.2 | 9.6 |
| 14 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 14.6 | 21.0 | 9.4 |
| 15 | FC Union Berlin | 10.2 | 17.6 | 9.0 |
| 16 | Elversberg | 14.0 | 19.7 | 8.9 |
| 17 | Schalke 04 | 9.9 | 16.4 | 8.6 |
| 18 | Hamburger SV | 9.2 | 16.8 | 7.7 |
xG: expected goals. xGA: expected goals against. xGD: the difference. xPts: expected points. From 81 of 81 finished regular-season matches: a match with no xG is left out of both figures, so points can be below the real table's. Points deductions are not counted. Early in a season most of a gap is luck, and a gap is no forecast.
xG table questions
What is the Bundesliga xG table?
It ranks Bundesliga clubs by expected points, what their chances were worth, instead of the points they won. xG (expected goals) is how likely each shot was to be scored, added up over a match.
How are expected points calculated?
The two clubs' xG in a match give the chances of a win, a draw and a loss through two Poisson distributions. Three times the chance of a win plus the chance of a draw is the match's expected points, and a club's figure is the sum of its matches. Providers that simulate each shot get figures close to these, not the same.
Which Bundesliga club is the luckiest on expected points?
Borussia Dortmund: 21 points from 15.3 expected, a gap of +5.7. Furthest the other way is Borussia Mönchengladbach: 4 points from 9.4 expected. Part of a gap can be finishing or goalkeeping rather than luck.
Does a gap mean results will change?
No. A club above its expected points may fall back, or may keep taking its chances. The gap shows what has happened, not what comes next, and it says nothing about the odds on a match.