Kepler signals report: September 2026
September in numbers: how often Kepler's 573 published picks beat the closing price, how it varied by market, and what one month can show.
This report covers every pick Kepler published for matches played in September 2026: 573 of them, all settled. It looks at the month the way a trading desk reviews its execution: not only at how many picks won, but at whether they were taken at a better price than the one the market finally settled on.
Every figure here comes from the public track record, where each pick is listed with its price, its result and, where we have it, its closing price.
Key takeaways
- Most picks beat the closing price. Of the picks with a sharp closing price to compare against, 57.8% were taken at a better price than the market's final one, by more than half a point. The average closing line value (CLV) was +1.94%.
- Both teams to score was the stronger market. It beat the close 65.9% of the time, with an average CLV of +3.08%, and returned +5.7%. Over/Under 2.5 beat the close too, but finished slightly down.
- The month ended +13.90 units on 573 picks, a return of +2.4%. That is well within what chance alone can produce in a month, and we say so rather than lead with it.
- Picks that beat the close won more often: 56.4% against 52.6%, at slightly higher odds. On 135 picks that is a hint, not proof.
Why we measure the closing price, not the win rate
A win rate on its own says little. A pick at 1.30 that wins 70% of the time loses money; a pick at 2.20 that wins 50% of the time makes it. And over a few hundred picks, the result of each match is mostly noise.
The closing price is the market's last and best estimate of a match, after all the information and all the money has come in. Taking a better price than that, again and again, is the most reliable sign that a model is seeing something the market only catches up with later. It shows up long before profit can be told apart from luck. We explain the idea in full in why CLV is the only metric that matters.
We compare each pick's price with a sharp bookmaker's closing price once its margin is removed, so the comparison is like for like. A pick counts as beating the close when its price is more than half a point better (CLV above +0.5%): a smaller move is the size of a price tick, not information.
How often the picks beat the close
| Market | Picks settled | Win rate | Return | Beat the close | Average CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 264 | 61.0% | +5.7% | 65.9% | +3.08% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 309 | 55.3% | −0.4% | 53.8% | +1.39% |
| All picks | 573 | 57.9% | +2.4% | 57.8% | +1.94% |
Both markets beat the close more than half the time. Both teams to score did it more often and by a wider margin, and it is also where the month's profit came from: +15.05 units, while Over/Under 2.5 finished 1.15 units down. A market can beat the close and still lose over a month; the smaller the edge, the longer it takes to show in the results.
Did the picks that beat the close win more?
If beating the closing price is a real sign of value, the picks that do it should, over time, win more often than the ones that do not.
They did: 56.4% against 52.6%, and at slightly higher odds, which should make winning harder, not easier. In units the picks that beat the close lost 0.39, while the others lost 4.41. On 135 picks this is consistent with closing line value doing its job, not proof of it. We will keep publishing the comparison as the sample grows.
Process against outcome
The first sharp closing price in the record is from 13 September, so the month splits in two.
| Period | Picks | Win rate | Profit | Beat the close | Average CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-12 September | 295 | 58.0% | +10.74 units | not recorded | not recorded |
| 13-30 September | 278 | 57.9% | +3.16 units | 57.8% | +1.94% |
The two halves won at almost exactly the same rate. Within the second half, the 135 picks we could measure against the close beat it nearly six times in ten, and yet lost 4.80 units between them. On the evidence of the price, those picks were good; over a few weeks, the results did not follow. That is what variance looks like at this sample size, and it is why we read the price first and the profit second.
What the model covered
September's 573 picks came from 20 leagues. The most covered were the Championship (75 picks), Serie A (66), League One (62), League Two (59), Serie B (37), and the Pro League and La Liga (35 each): top flights alongside the lower divisions, where prices are often set with less attention.
You do not have to follow every pick
A trading desk does not automate every order, and a subscriber does not have to follow every signal. People use Kepler in different ways:
- As a shortlist. Each signal is a match where the model's price and the market's disagree. Some subscribers treat it as a starting point and check it against their own view before staking anything.
- By market. Following only the markets where the edge has been clearest, judged by closing line value rather than by last week's results.
- In full. Following every signal at a flat stake, which is what the public record shows and the easiest approach to measure.
Whichever you choose, judge it over hundreds of picks, not a few days, and judge it by the price you got against the close.
How we measured this, and its limits
- Period: every published pick for a match played from 1 to 30 September 2026: 573 picks, all settled.
- Stakes: one flat unit per pick. Profit is in units.
- Closing line value: the pick's price against a sharp bookmaker's closing price with its margin removed. The first closing price in the record is from 13 September, and one is available for 135 of the 573 picks; for the others no sharp closing price was captured. Every figure about the close uses those 135 only, and a pick beats the close when its CLV is above +0.5%.
- Sample size: a month of picks is not enough to separate skill from luck on profit alone. The figures here are a first reading, not a verdict.
Every pick, winners and losers, is in the public track record. We will publish this report again each month, on the same definitions, so the numbers can be compared.
Frequently asked questions
What does beating the closing price mean?
A pick beats the close when the price it was taken at is better than the sharp market's final price before kickoff by more than half a point (CLV above +0.5%), once that price's margin is removed. Doing it consistently is the most reliable early sign that a model finds value.
Why report closing line value and not just profit?
Over a month, profit is mostly the result of a few hundred coin-like outcomes, and luck can swing it either way. Closing line value measures the price, which shows whether the picks were good long before the profit can.
Why do only 135 of the 573 picks have a closing price?
Closing line value needs a like-for-like closing price from the sharp market. For the other picks none was captured, so every figure about the close in this report uses the 135 picks that have one.
How often is this report published?
Monthly, on the same definitions, so each month's figures can be compared with the last. Every pick behind them is listed in the public track record.
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