TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV: predictions, H2H and market odds

TSG Hoffenheim have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 2.1 conceded (1.31 expected goals for, 1.52 against). Hamburger SV have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 2.6 conceded (1.31 expected goals for, 2.02 against).

Both teams scored in 80% of TSG Hoffenheim's recent matches and 60% of Hamburger SV's; 90% and 80% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 2 meetings TSG Hoffenheim won 2, Hamburger SV won 0 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 25 Apr 2026, finished Hamburger SV 1–2 TSG Hoffenheim.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 68%. Kepler's model projects 2.15–1.14 in expected goals, with 2–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.