VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund: predictions, H2H and market odds

VfB Stuttgart have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.1 goals scored and 2.1 conceded (1.82 expected goals for, 1.79 against). Borussia Dortmund have won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (1.73 expected goals for, 1.12 against).

Both teams scored in 80% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 30% of Borussia Dortmund's; 80% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 10 meetings VfB Stuttgart won 4, Borussia Dortmund won 4 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 4 Apr 2026, finished VfB Stuttgart 0–2 Borussia Dortmund.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 69%. Kepler's model projects 1.65–1.76 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.