FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: predictions, H2H and market odds

FSV Mainz 05 have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.9 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (1.96 expected goals for, 1.48 against). Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (1.82 expected goals for, 1.71 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 70% of Bayer 04 Leverkusen's; 60% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 10 meetings FSV Mainz 05 won 2, Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 6 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 28 Feb 2026, finished Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–1 FSV Mainz 05.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 63%. Kepler's model projects 1.29–1.71 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.