FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: predictions, H2H and market odds

FC Union Berlin have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 2.5 conceded (1.97 expected goals for, 2.14 against). Borussia Dortmund have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded (1.85 expected goals for, 1.19 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of FC Union Berlin's recent matches and 40% of Borussia Dortmund's; 90% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 10 meetings FC Union Berlin won 2, Borussia Dortmund won 8 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 24 Jan 2026, finished FC Union Berlin 0–3 Borussia Dortmund.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 63%. Kepler's model projects 0.99–1.95 in expected goals, with 0–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.