FC Bayern München vs FC Union Berlin: predictions, H2H and market odds

FC Bayern München have won 8, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, averaging 3.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (1.98 expected goals for, 1.39 against). FC Union Berlin have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 2.2 conceded (2.06 expected goals for, 1.64 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of FC Bayern München's recent matches and 80% of FC Union Berlin's; 80% and 90% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 10 meetings FC Bayern München won 7, FC Union Berlin won 0 and 3 ended level. The most recent, on 21 Mar 2026, finished FC Bayern München 4–0 FC Union Berlin.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 88%. Kepler's model projects 3.52–0.76 in expected goals, with 3–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.