Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: predictions, H2H and market odds

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (1.91 expected goals for, 1.78 against). SC Freiburg have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded (1.50 expected goals for, 1.11 against).

Both teams scored in 80% of Bayer 04 Leverkusen's recent matches and 70% of SC Freiburg's; 80% and 80% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 10 meetings Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 5, SC Freiburg won 2 and 3 ended level. The most recent, on 7 Mar 2026, finished SC Freiburg 3–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%. Kepler's model projects 2.32–1.14 in expected goals, with 2–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.