Derby County vs Birmingham City: predictions, H2H and market odds

Derby County have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.7 conceded (1.32 expected goals for, 2.00 against). Birmingham City have won 3, drawn 6 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.22 expected goals for, 1.28 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Derby County's recent matches and 90% of Birmingham City's; 70% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 4 meetings Derby County won 1, Birmingham City won 1 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 21 Mar 2026, finished Derby County 1–0 Birmingham City.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 46%. Kepler's model projects 1.33–1.05 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.