Watford vs Stoke City: predictions, H2H and market odds

Watford have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.7 goals scored and 2.1 conceded (1.26 expected goals for, 1.37 against). Stoke City have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 2.0 conceded (1.04 expected goals for, 1.53 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Watford's recent matches and 60% of Stoke City's; 50% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 8 meetings Watford won 4, Stoke City won 2 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 14 Mar 2026, finished Stoke City 3–1 Watford.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%. Kepler's model projects 1.27–1.02 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.