Southampton vs Swansea City: predictions, H2H and market odds

Southampton have won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.21 expected goals for, 1.31 against). Swansea City have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.6 conceded (1.77 expected goals for, 1.20 against).

Both teams scored in 90% of Southampton's recent matches and 50% of Swansea City's; 70% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 4 meetings Southampton won 3, Swansea City won 0 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 18 Apr 2026, finished Swansea City 1–2 Southampton.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%. Kepler's model projects 1.95–1.06 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.