Sassuolo vs AC Milan: predictions, H2H and market odds

Sassuolo have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded (1.67 expected goals for, 1.30 against). AC Milan have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.44 expected goals for, 1.48 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 60% of AC Milan's; 70% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 8 meetings Sassuolo won 3, AC Milan won 2 and 3 ended level. The most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished Sassuolo 2–0 AC Milan.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%. Kepler's model projects 1.14–1.80 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.