Real Madrid vs Villarreal: predictions, H2H and market odds

Real Madrid have won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (2.22 expected goals for, 1.31 against). Villarreal have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded (1.69 expected goals for, 1.57 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of Real Madrid's recent matches and 80% of Villarreal's; 70% and 80% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 10 meetings Real Madrid won 5, Villarreal won 2 and 3 ended level. The most recent, on 24 Jan 2026, finished Villarreal 0–2 Real Madrid.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 77%. Kepler's model projects 2.45–1.13 in expected goals, with 2–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.