Real Madrid vs Sevilla: predictions, H2H and market odds

Real Madrid have won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (2.14 expected goals for, 1.34 against). Sevilla have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded (1.26 expected goals for, 1.29 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of Real Madrid's recent matches and 60% of Sevilla's; 70% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 10 meetings Real Madrid won 9, Sevilla won 0 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 17 May 2026, finished Sevilla 0–1 Real Madrid.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 68%. Kepler's model projects 2.58–0.76 in expected goals, with 2–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.