Plymouth Argyle vs Burton Albion: predictions, H2H and market odds

Plymouth Argyle have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded (1.59 expected goals for, 1.04 against). Burton Albion have won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (1.33 expected goals for, 1.24 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Plymouth Argyle's recent matches and 90% of Burton Albion's; 60% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 6 meetings Plymouth Argyle won 4, Burton Albion won 0 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 4 Jan 2026, finished Plymouth Argyle 3–0 Burton Albion.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 56%. Kepler's model projects 2.08–1.01 in expected goals, with 2–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.