Derby County vs Swansea City: predictions, H2H and market odds

Derby County have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded (1.48 expected goals for, 1.65 against). Swansea City have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.4 conceded (1.42 expected goals for, 1.41 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Derby County's recent matches and 70% of Swansea City's; 70% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 6 meetings Derby County won 2, Swansea City won 3 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 14 Feb 2026, finished Derby County 2–0 Swansea City.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.