Brentford vs Chelsea: predictions, H2H and market odds

Brentford have won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.23 expected goals for, 1.58 against). Chelsea have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded (1.22 expected goals for, 1.79 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of Brentford's recent matches and 80% of Chelsea's; 60% and 80% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 10 meetings Brentford won 3, Chelsea won 3 and 4 ended level. The most recent, on 17 Jan 2026, finished Chelsea 2–0 Brentford.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 64%. Kepler's model projects 1.64–1.51 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.