Aston Villa vs Manchester City: predictions, H2H and market odds

Aston Villa have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (1.50 expected goals for, 1.27 against). Manchester City have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (1.45 expected goals for, 1.32 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of Aston Villa's recent matches and 60% of Manchester City's; 70% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 10 meetings Aston Villa won 4, Manchester City won 5 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 24 May 2026, finished Manchester City 1–2 Aston Villa.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%. Kepler's model projects 1.12–1.83 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.