Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City: predictions, H2H and market odds

Bolton Wanderers have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (1.50 expected goals for, 1.85 against). Stoke City have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.7 conceded (1.14 expected goals for, 1.37 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Bolton Wanderers's recent matches and 70% of Stoke City's; 60% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. The two have no previous meeting in our data.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 49%. Kepler's model projects 1.55–1.39 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.