Bolton Wanderers vs Cardiff City: predictions, H2H and market odds

Bolton Wanderers have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (1.71 expected goals for, 1.63 against). Cardiff City have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded (1.85 expected goals for, 1.77 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Bolton Wanderers's recent matches and 80% of Cardiff City's; 60% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 2 meetings Bolton Wanderers won 1, Cardiff City won 1 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 11 Apr 2026, finished Cardiff City 2–0 Bolton Wanderers.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 62%. Kepler's model projects 1.40–1.39 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.