Arsenal vs Chelsea: predictions, H2H and market odds

Arsenal have won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.5 conceded (1.44 expected goals for, 0.93 against). Chelsea have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded (1.14 expected goals for, 1.90 against).

Both teams scored in 30% of Arsenal's recent matches and 60% of Chelsea's; 50% and 80% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 10 meetings Arsenal won 6, Chelsea won 1 and 3 ended level. The most recent, on 1 Mar 2026, finished Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%. Kepler's model projects 2.02–0.83 in expected goals, with 2–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.