Best leagues for over 2.5 goals and BTTS in 2026
All 22 leagues ranked on 38,603 matches: the most over 2.5 goals and BTTS, last season and this one, and why the two lists are not the same.
Some leagues are full of goals, and some are not. The difference is large, it lasts from one season to the next, and it is the first thing worth knowing before you look at an over 2.5 or a both teams to score price.
We ranked the 22 leagues we cover on 38,603 finished matches, from July 2021 to 18 October 2026, with last season and this season next to the long-run figure. If you are new to the markets themselves, start with over 2.5 goals explained.
In short
- Most over 2.5 goals: Norway's 1. Division (64.1% of matches), the Bundesliga (61.6%) and Norway's Eliteserien (61.1%).
- Most both teams to score: the 1. Division (61.7%), the Bundesliga (60.1%) and Denmark's Superliga (59.1%).
- Fewest of both: Brazil's Serie B, at 38.5% over 2.5 and 45.0% both teams to score. For unders, La Liga 2 and Italy's Serie B come next.
- The two lists are not the same. Italy's Serie B is 20th of 22 for over 2.5 but 12th for both teams to score: 15.8% of its matches end 1-1.
- Trust the long-run figure most. It predicts next season better than last season does, and far better than a few weeks of this one.
The best leagues for over 2.5 goals
The share of matches with three goals or more:
| League | Since 2021 | Last season | This season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Division (Norway) | 64.1% | 63.3% | 71.2% |
| Bundesliga (Germany) | 61.6% | 63.7% | 74.1% |
| Eliteserien (Norway) | 61.1% | 62.5% | 62.3% |
| 2. Bundesliga (Germany) | 58.7% | 57.8% | 55.2% |
| Premier League (England) | 56.6% | 55.0% | 53.6% |
| First Division (Denmark) | 56.0% | 55.5% | 54.1% |
| Superliga (Denmark) | 55.7% | 60.4% | 55.4% |
| Superettan (Sweden) | 54.9% | 56.2% | 54.9% |
| Pro League (Belgium) | 54.1% | 49.8% | 62.9% |
| Ligue 1 (France) | 53.7% | 52.3% | 61.4% |
| Allsvenskan (Sweden) | 53.5% | 51.7% | 53.3% |
| Liga Portugal (Portugal) | 51.3% | 53.5% | 54.5% |
| Ekstraklasa (Poland) | 49.7% | 52.2% | 59.3% |
| League One (England) | 49.5% | 50.6% | 53.5% |
| Serie A (Italy) | 48.7% | 45.8% | 58.2% |
| Championship (England) | 48.1% | 50.4% | 61.8% |
| La Liga (Spain) | 48.0% | 50.0% | 55.3% |
| League Two (England) | 47.2% | 48.5% | 42.1% |
| Serie A (Brazil) | 46.6% | 46.1% | 51.0% |
| Serie B (Italy) | 44.6% | 48.1% | 53.1% |
| La Liga 2 (Spain) | 43.4% | 50.0% | 51.6% |
| Serie B (Brazil) | 38.5% | 40.1% | 42.6% |
Since 2021 covers every season from July 2021. Last season is the last complete one: 2025/26, or 2025 in Norway, Sweden and Brazil, which play in a calendar year. This season is 2026/27 so far, or 2026 in those leagues, where it is nearly over.
The gap from top to bottom is 25.6 points. Norway, Germany and the Premier League produce the most goals; the second divisions of Spain, Italy and Brazil the fewest. In Brazil's Serie B the away side scores just 0.88 goals a match, against 1.48 in Norway's 1. Division, and that alone takes a lot of overs off the table.
For under 2.5, read the list from the bottom: 61.5% of matches in Brazil's Serie B stayed under, then 56.6% in La Liga 2 and 55.4% in Italy's Serie B.
The best leagues for both teams to score
The share of matches where both teams scored:
| League | Since 2021 | Last season | This season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Division (Norway) | 61.7% | 63.3% | 64.2% |
| Bundesliga (Germany) | 60.1% | 61.8% | 59.3% |
| Superliga (Denmark) | 59.1% | 59.4% | 58.5% |
| 2. Bundesliga (Germany) | 58.9% | 59.5% | 58.2% |
| Eliteserien (Norway) | 58.2% | 57.1% | 59.6% |
| Superettan (Sweden) | 57.3% | 55.7% | 59.8% |
| Premier League (England) | 55.6% | 56.1% | 52.2% |
| First Division (Denmark) | 55.0% | 56.0% | 59.0% |
| Ligue 1 (France) | 55.0% | 50.3% | 59.6% |
| Ekstraklasa (Poland) | 54.8% | 57.5% | 64.8% |
| Pro League (Belgium) | 53.9% | 54.4% | 46.8% |
| Serie B (Italy) | 53.1% | 53.0% | 64.1% |
| La Liga (Spain) | 52.2% | 56.6% | 57.6% |
| Allsvenskan (Sweden) | 52.0% | 52.5% | 52.8% |
| Serie A (Brazil) | 51.8% | 47.4% | 59.0% |
| Championship (England) | 51.5% | 56.5% | 63.4% |
| Serie A (Italy) | 51.5% | 45.3% | 59.7% |
| League Two (England) | 51.4% | 52.6% | 51.2% |
| League One (England) | 51.3% | 52.2% | 58.8% |
| La Liga 2 (Spain) | 50.0% | 56.1% | 52.6% |
| Liga Portugal (Portugal) | 49.7% | 47.8% | 51.5% |
| Serie B (Brazil) | 45.0% | 50.1% | 46.8% |
The top is familiar: Norway and Germany again, with Denmark's Superliga up to third. But the spread is much narrower, 16.7 points from top to bottom against 25.6 for over 2.5, and several leagues sit in quite different places.
Where the two lists part ways
Over 2.5 and both teams to score usually go together: in our matches 41.0% had both. But they part ways in two kinds of league:
| League | BTTS | Over 2.5 | Ends 1-1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serie B (Italy) | 53.1% | 44.6% | 15.8% |
| La Liga 2 (Spain) | 50.0% | 43.4% | 13.3% |
| Serie B (Brazil) | 45.0% | 38.5% | 13.6% |
| Ekstraklasa (Poland) | 54.8% | 49.7% | 13.6% |
| Serie A (Brazil) | 51.8% | 46.6% | 13.8% |
| Eliteserien (Norway) | 58.2% | 61.1% | 10.1% |
| 1. Division (Norway) | 61.7% | 64.1% | 10.1% |
| Liga Portugal (Portugal) | 49.7% | 51.3% | 11.0% |
| Bundesliga (Germany) | 60.1% | 61.6% | 11.2% |
- Tight, balanced leagues score less but share the goals. Italy's Serie B, La Liga 2 and both Brazilian leagues have plenty of 1-1s, which is a yes for both teams to score and an under for goals. In Italy's Serie B 15.8% of matches end 1-1, against 10.1% in Norway's 1. Division.
- Leagues with lopsided matches produce overs without both teams scoring: 3-0s and 4-0s. Norway's two leagues, Liga Portugal and the Bundesliga have more overs than both-teams-to-score results.
So a "goals league" is not automatically a both teams to score league. Check the market you are betting on, not just the league's reputation.
Which number to trust
A league's rate moves from season to season, so which figure should you use? We tested it on 89 league seasons: how well did each figure, known before the season started, predict the rate the season actually had?
- For over 2.5, the long-run figure wins. The rate over all earlier seasons missed by 3.5 points on average, last season alone by 3.9, and the overall average of all leagues by 5.7. The league really matters.
- For both teams to score, the league matters less. The long-run figure missed by 3.4 points, but even the plain overall average, 53.4%, only missed by 4.1. Leagues differ less, and those differences are less stable.
And this season's figures need the most care. After 60 matches a rate can be 12 points away from the league's real level by chance alone; after 300, about 6. The Bundesliga's 74.1% over 2.5 this season comes from 54 matches.
That said, matches are running hot so far: 16 of the 22 leagues are above their long-run over 2.5 rate. It may be a real shift or an early-season streak. We will know more by the winter break.
How to use these rankings
- Start from the league, then the teams. The league's long-run rate is the baseline for any match in it. A 55% chance of over 2.5 is a quiet match in the Bundesliga and a lively one in La Liga 2. How to go from there to a single match is in how to predict over 2.5 goals.
- The league is already in the price. Bookmakers know the Bundesliga scores. Betting overs there is not value in itself; the price still has to beat the real chance. See what is a value bet.
- Overs in one league move together. A round of tight matches hits every over in it at once, so five overs from the same league on one weekend are less spread out than they look.
- The referee and the weather add little. We tested both: see how referees affect football and weather in football betting.
Our model works the same way: it starts from each league's own scoring and adjusts for the two teams. Every match page shows its chance of over 2.5 and both teams to score next to the market's, and every published pick goes on the public track record.
Frequently asked questions
Which league has the most over 2.5 goals?
Norway's 1. Division: 64.1% of its matches went over 2.5 from July 2021 to October 2026. The Bundesliga is next at 61.6%, the highest of Europe's major leagues, then Norway's Eliteserien at 61.1%.
Which league has the most both teams to score?
Norway's 1. Division again, at 61.7%, then the Bundesliga (60.1%) and Denmark's Superliga (59.1%). Leagues differ less for both teams to score than for over 2.5: 16.7 points from top to bottom, against 25.6.
Which league is best for under 2.5 goals?
Brazil's Serie B: 61.5% of its matches had two goals or fewer. Then La Liga 2 (56.6%) and Italy's Serie B (55.4%).
Is the Premier League good for over 2.5 goals?
It is above average: 56.6% of its matches went over 2.5 since 2021, fifth of our 22 leagues, and 55.0% last season. So far this season it is 53.6%, from 69 matches.
Should I use last season's rate or the long-run rate?
The long-run rate. Tested on 89 league seasons, the rate over all earlier seasons missed the next season's over 2.5 rate by 3.5 points on average, last season alone by 3.9. A few weeks of the current season can be 12 points off by chance.
Betting involves risk. A league's history describes the past, not the next match, and no ranking guarantees a result. Only stake what you can afford to lose. 18+.