Watford vs Burnley: predictions, H2H and market odds

Watford have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.9 conceded (1.23 expected goals for, 1.42 against). Burnley have won 0, drawn 5 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.9 conceded (1.09 expected goals for, 1.42 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of Watford's recent matches and 90% of Burnley's; 50% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 6 meetings Watford won 1, Burnley won 3 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 18 Apr 2025, finished Watford 1–2 Burnley.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 54%. Kepler's model projects 0.86–1.37 in expected goals, with 0–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 56%.