Vitória vs Cruzeiro: predictions, H2H and market odds

Vitória have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded (1.05 expected goals for, 1.47 against). Cruzeiro have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.32 expected goals for, 1.39 against).

Both teams scored in 20% of Vitória's recent matches and 80% of Cruzeiro's; 30% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 7 meetings Vitória won 1, Cruzeiro won 3 and 3 ended level. The most recent, on 1 Apr 2026, finished Cruzeiro 3–0 Vitória.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%. Kepler's model projects 1.03–1.17 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.