Vila Nova vs Criciúma: predictions, H2H and market odds

Vila Nova have won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (1.23 expected goals for, 1.17 against). Criciúma have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.1 conceded (0.79 expected goals for, 1.18 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Vila Nova's recent matches and 10% of Criciúma's; 30% and 30% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing tight matches. In their last 7 meetings Vila Nova won 1, Criciúma won 4 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 18 Jul 2026, finished Criciúma 2–0 Vila Nova.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 40%. Kepler's model projects 1.10–0.90 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 49%.