Vila Nova vs América Mineiro: predictions, H2H and market odds

Vila Nova have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (1.62 expected goals for, 1.48 against). América Mineiro have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.9 goals scored and 1.9 conceded (1.33 expected goals for, 1.50 against).

Both teams scored in 20% of Vila Nova's recent matches and 50% of América Mineiro's; 30% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 5 meetings Vila Nova won 2, América Mineiro won 2 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 24 May 2026, finished América Mineiro 1–2 Vila Nova.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 45%. Kepler's model projects 1.69–0.83 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.