Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza: predictions, H2H and market odds

Ponte Preta have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.3 goals scored and 2.4 conceded (1.09 expected goals for, 1.82 against). Fortaleza have won 5, drawn 5 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (1.01 expected goals for, 0.85 against).

Both teams scored in 20% of Ponte Preta's recent matches and 60% of Fortaleza's; 20% and 30% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing tight matches. Their only previous meeting in our data, on 3 Jul 2026, finished Fortaleza 2–0 Ponte Preta.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 56%. Kepler's model projects 0.60–1.61 in expected goals, with 0–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 47%.