Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba: predictions, H2H and market odds

Vasco da Gama have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (1.33 expected goals for, 1.41 against). Coritiba have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded (1.12 expected goals for, 1.22 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Vasco da Gama's recent matches and 70% of Coritiba's; 50% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 5 meetings Vasco da Gama won 2, Coritiba won 0 and 3 ended level. The most recent, on 1 Apr 2026, finished Coritiba 1–1 Vasco da Gama.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 53%. Kepler's model projects 1.76–1.28 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.