Valencia vs Real Sociedad: predictions, H2H and market odds

Valencia have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded (1.06 expected goals for, 1.33 against). Real Sociedad have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.9 conceded (1.37 expected goals for, 2.04 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Valencia's recent matches and 70% of Real Sociedad's; 40% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 10 meetings Valencia won 3, Real Sociedad won 3 and 4 ended level. The most recent, on 17 May 2026, finished Real Sociedad 3–4 Valencia.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 49%. Kepler's model projects 1.32–1.15 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.