Valencia vs Athletic Club: predictions, H2H and market odds

Valencia have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.9 conceded (1.07 expected goals for, 1.56 against). Athletic Club have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded (1.32 expected goals for, 1.40 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of Valencia's recent matches and 40% of Athletic Club's; 60% and 30% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 10 meetings Valencia won 3, Athletic Club won 4 and 3 ended level. The most recent, on 10 May 2026, finished Athletic Club 0–1 Valencia.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 45%. Kepler's model projects 1.12–1.13 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 54%.