Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa: predictions, H2H and market odds

Tottenham Hotspur have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded (1.00 expected goals for, 1.02 against). Aston Villa have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded (1.31 expected goals for, 1.46 against).

Both teams scored in 40% of Tottenham Hotspur's recent matches and 60% of Aston Villa's; 40% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 10 meetings Tottenham Hotspur won 5, Aston Villa won 5 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished Aston Villa 1–2 Tottenham Hotspur.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 55%. Kepler's model projects 1.45–1.48 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.