Sunderland vs Arsenal: predictions, H2H and market odds

Sunderland have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded (1.30 expected goals for, 1.33 against). Arsenal have won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded (1.66 expected goals for, 0.95 against).

Both teams scored in 60% of Sunderland's recent matches and 40% of Arsenal's; 50% and 60% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 2 meetings Sunderland won 0, Arsenal won 1 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 7 Feb 2026, finished Arsenal 3–0 Sunderland.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 46%. Kepler's model projects 0.68–1.50 in expected goals, with 0–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.