Sport Recife vs São Bernardo: predictions, H2H and market odds

Sport Recife have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded (1.17 expected goals for, 1.08 against). São Bernardo have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 0.6 conceded (1.12 expected goals for, 1.06 against).

Both teams scored in 80% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 40% of São Bernardo's; 90% and 20% went over 2.5 goals. Their only previous meeting in our data, on 14 Jun 2026, finished São Bernardo 0–0 Sport Recife.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 50%. Kepler's model projects 1.39–1.00 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 51%.