Sport Recife vs Fortaleza: predictions, H2H and market odds

Sport Recife have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded (1.14 expected goals for, 1.11 against). Fortaleza have won 5, drawn 5 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (1.04 expected goals for, 0.88 against).

Both teams scored in 80% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 60% of Fortaleza's; 80% and 30% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 3 meetings Sport Recife won 0, Fortaleza won 2 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 28 Jun 2026, finished Fortaleza 2–1 Sport Recife.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%. Kepler's model projects 1.29–0.90 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 53%.