Southampton vs Stoke City: predictions, H2H and market odds

Southampton have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded (1.52 expected goals for, 1.22 against). Stoke City have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.9 conceded (1.29 expected goals for, 1.23 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Southampton's recent matches and 60% of Stoke City's; 80% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 4 meetings Southampton won 2, Stoke City won 2 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 31 Jan 2026, finished Stoke City 0–2 Southampton.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.