Southampton vs Bristol City: predictions, H2H and market odds

Southampton have won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.18 expected goals for, 1.29 against). Bristol City have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded (1.47 expected goals for, 1.07 against).

Both teams scored in 90% of Southampton's recent matches and 70% of Bristol City's; 70% and 70% went over 2.5 goals. Both sides have been playing open matches. In their last 4 meetings Southampton won 1, Bristol City won 2 and 1 ended level. The most recent, on 21 Apr 2026, finished Southampton 2–2 Bristol City.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 60%. Kepler's model projects 2.11–1.08 in expected goals, with 2–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.