Kepler

FixturesSerie A · Brazil · Round 30

Kick-off: Sun, 11 Oct 2026 · 00:00 UTCStadium: Estádio Nicolau Alayon, São Paulo

São Paulo

2 – 1Full time

Vitória

São Paulo vs Vitória line-ups

São Paulo (3-4-2-1): Rafael – Newton, Robert Arboleda, Sabino – Lucas Ramon, Damián Bobadilla , Djhordney, Iago – Artur, Gustavo Santana – Jonathan Calleri .

Vitória (4-1-4-1): Lucas Arcanjo – Jamerson, Luan Cândido, Cacá, Mateusinho – Caíque Gonçalves – Lucas Silva, Matheuzinho, Emmanuel Martínez, Erick – Renê.

Out for São Paulo: Aurélio Buta , Danielzinho, Domingos Duarte, Nicolas. Out for Vitória: Camutanga, Dudu , Edu Ribeiro , Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva, Nathan Mendes, Ramon, Diego Tarzia.

Betting involves risk. Past results do not guarantee future ones. 18+.

FixturesSerie A · Brazil · Round 30

Kick-off: Sun, 11 Oct 2026 · 00:00 UTCStadium: Estádio Nicolau Alayon, São Paulo

São Paulo

2 – 1Full time

Vitória

São Paulo vs Vitória line-ups

São Paulo (3-4-2-1): Rafael – Newton, Robert Arboleda, Sabino – Lucas Ramon, Damián Bobadilla , Djhordney, Iago – Artur, Gustavo Santana – Jonathan Calleri .

Vitória (4-1-4-1): Lucas Arcanjo – Jamerson, Luan Cândido, Cacá, Mateusinho – Caíque Gonçalves – Lucas Silva, Matheuzinho, Emmanuel Martínez, Erick – Renê.

Out for São Paulo: Aurélio Buta , Danielzinho, Domingos Duarte, Nicolas. Out for Vitória: Camutanga, Dudu , Edu Ribeiro , Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva, Nathan Mendes, Ramon, Diego Tarzia.

Line-ups

Confirmed

As announced by the clubs.

São Paulo3-4-2-1

Coach · Dorival Silvestre Júnior

23Rafael
28Newton
5Robert Arboleda
35Sabino
19Lucas Ramon
16Bobadilla
48Djhordney
12Iago
37Artur
43Gustavo Santana
9Calleri
1Lucas Arcanjo
83Jamerson
36Luan Cândido
25Cacá
98Mateusinho
95Caíque Gonçalves
20Lucas Silva
10Matheuzinho
6Martínez
33Erick
91Renê

Vitória4-1-4-1

Coach · Jair Ribeiro Ventura

Dorival Silvestre JúniorCoachJair Ribeiro Ventura

RefereeLucas Casagrande

São Paulo

Bench

31Carlos CoronelGK
2Rafael TolóiDF
18WendellDF
32Pedro LimaDF
8Marcos AntônioMF
29Pablo MaiaMF
46Pedro FerreiraMF
7Lucas Moura FW
17André SilvaFW
27Victor SáFW
45Lucca FW
49Ryan FranciscoFW

Out

Aurélio Buta Knee Injury
DanielzinhoAnkle Injury
Domingos DuarteCruciate Ligament Injury
NicolasUnknown Injury

Vitória

Bench

71Yuri Sena GK
2Emanuel BrítezDF
15WalaceDF
8Tomás PochettinoMF
26EdenilsonMF
77Ignacio LaquintanaMF
88Zé VitorMF
7MarinhoFW
9Alex BrunoFW
23FabriFW
28Anderson PatoFW
79Renato KayzerFW

Out

CamutangaUnknown Injury
Dudu Unknown Injury
Edu Ribeiro Unknown Injury
Fabiano Josué de Souza SilvaKnee Injury
Nathan MendesCruciate Ligament Injury
RamonLeg Injury
Diego TarziaYellow Card Suspension · until 18 Oct

Betting involves risk. Past results do not guarantee future ones. 18+.

São Paulo vs Vitória predicted score

Expected goals

1.46–0.80

Most likely score

1–0

Market	Model	Market
Both teams to score · Yes	53%	50%

Kepler's model for a match without a signal. It publishes a pick only when its numbers and the market's disagree by enough.

São Paulo vs Vitória odds

Side	Best price		Fair probability
Both teams to score
Yes	2.00	bet365	49.6%
No	1.87	Betfair	50.4%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5	2.07	Pinnacle	46.9%
Under 2.5	1.86	1xbet	53.1%

odds updated 19:05 UTC · 7 bookmakers tracked

Fair probability: one bookmaker's two prices with its margin removed - Pinnacle where it prices the market, otherwise an exchange.

What is a fair probability? →

No signal was published for this match

Before kickoff the model's price and the market's did not disagree by enough to publish. Signals for upcoming matches reach subscribers the moment they open.

What does “no signal” mean on a match page? →

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Referee

Lucas Casagrande

Yellow cards: 4.4 per match
Red cards: 0.07 per match
Fouls: 27.0 per match
Penalties: 0.21 per match

Matches this season: 14

Kepler in Serie A

15 settled picks · ROI −39.4% · average CLV +2.45%

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