São Paulo vs Vitória: predictions, H2H and market odds

São Paulo have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (0.97 expected goals for, 1.21 against). Vitória have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded (1.25 expected goals for, 1.52 against).

Both teams scored in 50% of São Paulo's recent matches and 30% of Vitória's; 30% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 5 meetings São Paulo won 3, Vitória won 2 and 0 ended level. The most recent, on 11 Apr 2026, finished Vitória 2–0 São Paulo.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 47%. Kepler's model projects 1.46–0.80 in expected goals, with 1–0 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 53%.