Kepler

FixturesLiga Portugal · Portugal · Round 8

Kick-off: Sun, 11 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UTCStadium: Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde

Rio Ave

3 – 2Full time

Nacional

Rio Ave vs Nacional head to head

In their last 4 meetings Rio Ave won 1, Nacional won 1 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 25 Jan 2026, finished Nacional 4–0 Rio Ave.

1Wins

2Draws

1Wins

25 Jan 2026NacionalRio Ave404-0
17 Aug 2025Rio AveNacional111-1
10 May 2025NacionalRio Ave333-3
29 Dec 2024Rio AveNacional212-1

Betting involves risk. Past results do not guarantee future ones. 18+.

Rio Ave vs Nacional predicted score

Expected goals

1.28–1.16

Most likely score

1–1

Market	Model	Market
Both teams to score · Yes	57%	50%

Kepler's model for a match without a signal. It publishes a pick only when its numbers and the market's disagree by enough.

Rio Ave vs Nacional odds

Side	Best price		Fair probability
Both teams to score
Yes	1.87	Betfair	50.4%
No	1.95	bet365	49.6%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5	2.13	1xbet	46.3%
Under 2.5	1.79	Pinnacle	53.8%

odds updated 19:05 UTC · 7 bookmakers tracked

Fair probability: one bookmaker's two prices with its margin removed - Pinnacle where it prices the market, otherwise an exchange.

What is a fair probability? →

No signal was published for this match

Before kickoff the model's price and the market's did not disagree by enough to publish. Signals for upcoming matches reach subscribers the moment they open.

What does “no signal” mean on a match page? →

Start 14-day free trial

Free for 14 days. Cancel any time.

Referee

Carlos André Fernandes Macedo

Portugal

Yellow cards: 3.8 per match
Red cards: 0.5 per match
Fouls: 23.8 per match
Penalties: 0.5 per match

Matches this season: 4

Kepler in Liga Portugal

1 settled picks · ROI +83.0% · average CLV +2.15%

Full track record →