Rio Ave vs Nacional: predictions, H2H and market odds

Rio Ave have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded (0.96 expected goals for, 1.44 against). Nacional have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.9 conceded (0.98 expected goals for, 1.42 against).

Both teams scored in 30% of Rio Ave's recent matches and 40% of Nacional's; 40% and 50% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 4 meetings Rio Ave won 1, Nacional won 1 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 25 Jan 2026, finished Nacional 4–0 Rio Ave.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%. Kepler's model projects 1.28–1.16 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 57%.