Rio Ave vs Estrela Amadora: predictions, H2H and market odds

Rio Ave have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded (1.05 expected goals for, 1.41 against). Estrela Amadora have won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.7 conceded (1.33 expected goals for, 1.29 against).

Both teams scored in 30% of Rio Ave's recent matches and 80% of Estrela Amadora's; 40% and 80% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 6 meetings Rio Ave won 3, Estrela Amadora won 1 and 2 ended level. The most recent, on 15 Mar 2026, finished Rio Ave 2–1 Estrela Amadora.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 45%. Kepler's model projects 1.36–1.21 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.