Real Sociedad vs Celta de Vigo: predictions, H2H and market odds

Real Sociedad have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.9 conceded (1.52 expected goals for, 1.83 against). Celta de Vigo have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (1.12 expected goals for, 1.36 against).

Both teams scored in 70% of Real Sociedad's recent matches and 50% of Celta de Vigo's; 50% and 40% went over 2.5 goals. In their last 10 meetings Real Sociedad won 5, Celta de Vigo won 2 and 3 ended level. The most recent, on 25 Jan 2026, finished Real Sociedad 3–1 Celta de Vigo.

With the bookmaker's margin removed, the market puts both teams to score at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%. Kepler's model projects 1.59–1.20 in expected goals, with 1–1 the most likely score, and puts both teams to score at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.